415
FXUS61 KAKQ 251946
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes/updated discussions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Anomalously cool this afternoon, with showers ending by early
evening. Clearing skies tonight, but with patchy fog and low
stratus possible overnight into Sunday morning.

2) Isolated/widely scattered late day showers/storms Sunday/Monday,
with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday; strong to
severe storms are possible Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously cool this afternoon, with showers
ending by early evening. Clearing skies tonight, but with patchy
fog and low stratus possible overnight into Sunday morning.

Cool sfc high pressure/CAD in place across the region this
afternoon, with temperatures across southern VA and NE NC mostly
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This could be cool enough to
challenge daily record low max temperatures at ORF/ECG (see
Climate section for details). Otherwise, showers are becoming
confined to far SE VA and NE NC this afternoon, and will
continue to slide off to the SE and offshore by sunset. To the
north, skies have already partially cleared and this should
spread south into most of the CWA during the evening hrs.
However, with little to no wind overnight and lingering low
level moisture, expect to see low stratus and at least patchy
fog develop, especially over the piedmont (though fog will be
possible farther east as well). Temperatures don`t drop off too
much tonight, with lows generally in the low- mid 60s (upper
60s SE).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated/widely scattered late day showers/storms
Sunday/Monday, with higher rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday;
strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday.

Temperatures trend closer to normal on Sunday as weak sfc high
pressure settles across the area, with an upper level ridge
amplifying across the central and SW CONUS. Light onshore flow
will keep highs in the lower 80s along the coast, with mid to
upper 80s elsewhere. Dew P`s stay reasonably comfortable by
July standards (mostly in the 60s), under a partly-mostly sunny
sky. The next shortwave aloft (currently located over NW
Ontario), dives SE and is forecast to push across the local area
late Sunday/Sunday night. Models show some varying solutions as
to the highest coverage of showers/storms, and for now a blended
solution yields 30-40% chc PoPs along and W of I-95, tapered to
~20% closer to the coast. We are not outlooked by SPC for any
SVR threat, and the timing mostly getting close to sunset or
later would further limit a widespread SVR threat, but can`t
rule out an isolated strong storm over the piedmont given decent
shear in the tightening NW flow aloft. NW flow pattern continues
Monday, with the potential for additional shortwaves (though
timing these features beyond 24 hrs always becomes challenging).
Will again have chc PoPs for most of the area later Monday into
Monday evening, again with a strong/SVR storm or two not out of
the question despite no SPC outlook. The airmass gradually
becomes more humid with dew P`s Monday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s coupled with high temperatures from the mid 80s to
around 90F. Latest models continue to suggest Tuesday has the
better SVR threat, as well as a higher storm coverage as a
strong cold front and upper level trough/shortwave move into the
area from the NW. The operational ECMWF continues to be most
aggressive with the upper tough (actually becoming cutoff over
the NE and northern mid-Atlantic) while the GFS/Canadian are a
bit more progressive. Shear looks impressive by July standards,
and the models mostly depict decent instability and even mid
level lapse rates up to 6.0-6.5C, which would support a robust
damaging wind and hail threat. As always though, timing of the
storms will be important to how much severe WX occurs (as has
been the case with some recent events). Highs Tuesday look to be
in the upper 80s to around  90F, along with humid conditions
9Dew P`s in low-mid 70s). SPC still has the FA highlighted in
the extended severe outlook. The NBM has fairly low PoPs for
Wednesday, though some additional showers/storms are possible
again especially if the more amplified solutions verify.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Showers linger across far SE VA and NE NC, though conditions
are slowly improving and most of the rain looks to be over
before sunset. Still seeing fairly widespread MVFR CIGs in the
south, with pockets of IFR to start along the Albemarle sound.
Most areas become VFR by early evening, but with clearing skies
and light winds, fog and low stratus is likely to redevelop
later today into Sunday morning. For now, have included MVFR
VSBYs with just low SCT clouds at PHF/RIC though IFR CIGs will
be possible. At ECG, have included IFR CIGS overnight. Expect
VFR conditions to return to all terminals after 12-14Z Sunday.


Outlook:
Isolated to widely scattered late aftn/evening showers/storms
are possible both Sunday and Monday, with a higher chance for
storms Tuesday aftn/evening as the next front approaches the
region from the NNW. Additional SHRA/TSRA possible Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected to prevail in onshore flow
  through the weekend.

- Another front approaches on Tuesday, which could bring a
  period of low-end SCAs with SW winds.

A frontal boundary remains stalled well south of the local waters
this afternoon. A weak low has developed along the front off the
Carolina coast, and winds remain from the northeast to east this
afternoon. There was a brief wind surge this morning, but that has
since trended downwards, and winds range between 5-10 kts across the
local waters. Due to the aforementioned wind surge, seas still
remain elevated, especially in the southern coastal waters where
seas are still ~4 ft. Waves are measuring between 1-3 ft (highest at
the mouth of the Bay). As the low deepens offshore tonight into
tomorrow morning, winds will increase back to 10-15 kt while
remaining northerly, but are expected to remain sub-SCA. As the low
continues to lift farther away, the gradient across the region will
relax and winds will shift to the southeast Monday, then to the
south on Monday night. The gradient is expected to tighten on
Tuesday ahead of the next front. S and SW winds are forecast to
increase to 15-20 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 kt offshore. A few
strong storms are possible Monday evening with a better chance
Tuesday afternoon and evening with gusty winds the primary threat.
In the wake of the front, winds will decrease.

A moderate rip risk continues this afternoon for the southern
beaches, with a low rip risk in the northern waters. While winds are
not forecast to increase a significant amount overnight, they will
remain north-northeast and keep seas at around 3 ft for the southern
waters tomorrow. Have decided to extend the moderate rip risk for
the southern waters through tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Well below normal highs today across southern VA and NE NC,
with a record low max (or tie) possible at Norfolk and Elizabeth
City:

Record Low Max for 7/25:

- ORF: 73 (2000)
- ECG: 75 (2000)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...ERI/NB
CLIMATE...LKB

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion