247
FXUS61 KAKQ 091050
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near to below normal temperatures again today but not quite as
cool as Monday.

2) Above normal temperatures return mid to late week along with the
chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near to below normal temperatures again today but
not quite as cool as Monday.

Surface high pressure is centered over the area early this morning
with light and variable winds. Satellite shows some bands of cirrus
clouds with some lower level stratus over NW portions of the area.
High pressure moves slowly offshore today which allows low level
flow to swing around to the SE by mid to late afternoon. Forecast
soundings show decent saturation well aloft through most of the day
which will hamper full solar insolation. Accordingly, have knocked a
few degrees off of the blended temperature guidance, resulting in
afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 70s near the coast to the
low/mid 80s for inland areas. Not as breezy as yesterday but SE
winds are expected to strengthen a bit by late afternoon, especially
near the bay/coast.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures return mid to late week
along with the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms.

Surface high pressure anchors offshore as an upper ridge builds
across the Southeast by mid to late week. The upper ridge will be
centered south of the local area with stronger flow aloft impinging
on the Mid-Atlantic, allowing for the potential for upper level
disturbances to traverse the region and spark mainly diurnal chances
for showers and storms. Temperatures rebound into the upper 80s and
low 90s on Wednesday with a chance for mainly afternoon/evening
showers and storms, likely focused across northern and central
portions of the area. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (lvl
1/5) for strong to severe storms on Wednesday. A shortwave will
impact at least the northern half of the area with somewhat
stronger flow aloft and potential for storm organization.
Locally strong to severe winds are the main hazard with any
storms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The upper ridge amplifies to our south Thursday and Friday with
modestly rising heights aloft. High temperatures likely rise
into the mid and upper 90s each afternoon but cloud cover and
continued chances for showers and storms lend some lingering
uncertainty to the temperature forecast. Low level moisture is
also expected to tick up late this week which will result in the
potential for heat index values to rise into the 103- 108 range
Thursday and Friday, depending on coverage and timing of any
convection or thicker cloud cover. Latest guidance continues to
show the weekend remaining warm but not quite as hot as Thursday
and Friday with continued chances for diurnal showers and
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF
period. Winds early this morning are mainly E or SE at 5 kt or
less. The wind will generally be ESE/SE 5-10 kt along the coast
today and S 5-10 kt inland. Satellite shows fairly widespread
(SCT/BKN) cirrus across the region. Forecast soundings show the
potential for cirrus to persist through the period. Some modest
low level moisture may result in FEW/SCT CU inland this
afternoon.

Outlook...High pressure shifts offshore through Thursday with a
chc of mainly diurnal showers/tstms. A weakening cold front
slowly approaches from the NW Friday and Saturday with a chc of
mainly diurnal showers/tstms continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the coastal
  waters south of Cape Charles Light this morning.

- A period of elevated southerly flow is possible from this
  evening into Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions
  are possible, particularly across the coastal waters.

- There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all
  area beaches.

Latest surface analysis depicted high pressure centered over the
Eastern Shore. Winds were E/ESE 5-10 kt with 4-5 ft seas lingering
across the coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light. Seas look to
subside over the next hour or so across the VA coastal waters but
will likely remain elevated until later this morning across the NC
coastal waters. As such, SCAs remain in effect until 7 AM for the NC
coastal waters. SCAs will be allowed to expire at 4 AM for the VA
coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light.

The area of high pressure moves offshore today into tonight. In
response, winds become SE later this morning, increasing to
10-15 kt late in the afternoon. Winds become S tonight,
increasing to 15-17 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Local wind probs
were around 50-55% for 18 kt sustained winds across the Ches Bay
for this surge. However, the onset of stronger winds has
trended later over the past 24 hours and marginal S flow SCA
conditions tend to be less likely to verify compared to N/NE
flow. As such (and given only around a ~50% chance of occuring)
have opted to wait for the 12z CAMs to see if winds trend
stronger or weaker with the surge before making a decision on
SCAs. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across
the Ches Bay on Wed. However, winds increase to 15-25 kt with
gusts up to 25-30 kt across the coastal waters late Wed into Wed
night. This will likely be accompanied by seas building to 4-5
ft. SCAs will likely be needed for this surge. However, given
current SCAs across the southern coastal waters, will hold off
on issuing addition SCAs at this time. Winds and seas diminish
Thu with generally benign marine conditions (outside of any
convection) likely from Thu into next weekend.

There is a moderate risk for rip currents today across all area
beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion