266
FXUS61 KAKQ 280801
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPS for Fog has been issued through 9am for southern and interior southeast Virginia and interior NE North
Carolina.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return
Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential
for rain this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 335 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly cooler today then above normal temperatures return
Thursday through Friday. Uncertainty remains for the potential
for rain this weekend.

Early morning weather analysis weak upper level ridge over west-
central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes and an upper trough over the
NW CONUS. At the surface, a 1034mb high pressure sits over New
England . The pressure gradient over the area remains weak allowing
for weak onshore flow. Temperatures and dew points are much higher
than the previous due to the onshore flow and are ranging between
the upper 40s to low 50s. In addition, due to clear skies, higher
dews, and light winds low stratus and patchy fog has developed
across SE VA and NE NC. Through the rest of the morning the stratus
and patchy fog will develop across the piedmont possibly causing
reduced visibilities. An SPS has been issued at this time due
to visibilities dropping below a mile across southern and
interior southeast Virginia and interior NE North Carolina.
However, if conditions worsen across the area through the early
morning the SPS maybe expanded or Dense Fog may potentially be
issued.


For today, the low stratus is expected to hang on across the piedmont
as a CAD builds across the area. This will likely cause temperatures
to struggle to get out of the middle to upper 60s as the SE the
cloud cover is expected to break early allowing for temps to warm
near 70. If the could deck across the piedmont breaks early a run
near the 70s cannot be ruled out in the piedmont. However, the
confidence is low as the NAM (handles CAD well) is holding onto
much low temps. The high will then eventually anchor off the
southern New England to Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday
while low pressure remains suppressed well south near the Bahamas.
With the high pressure offshore, SSW will allow for highs to
potentially reach the the middle to upper 70s Thursday and Friday.

Dry weather conditions are forecasted to prevail through the late
weekend, as upper ridging builds over the region. By Friday and into
the weekend, a northern stream shortwave traversing central Canada
will flatten the upper pattern. Halloween continues to look dry
pleasant, and mild with increasing clouds ahead of of a weak cold
front allowing for optimal Trick-or-Treating conditions across the
region. Looking Monday into early next week the potential for the
pattern to become slightly unsettled continues to remain low. The
latest 00z/28 ensembles continue to hint on a weak system moving
across the area during the first couple days of November. However,
at this time the ensembles continue to remain in  disagreement on
amounts of precipitation and or if there will be any precip. The
GEFS and Canadian ensembles have roughly 30-50% of rainfall greater
than .1" while the GFS-AI, EURO-AI, and the EURO has little to no
rain chances. With the disagreement this is continuing to lead to
low confidence in any beneficial rainfall at the start of November
and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 141 AM EDT Wednesday...

A mix of MVFR and IFR conditions have been noted across RIC and
PHF as VFR conditions continue across ORF, ECG, and SBY at the
start of the 6z TAF. Patchy mist/fog has begun to develop across
VA and interior NC. This fog and mist will become more
widespread as the night continues and will likely cause the
MVFR and IFR conditions to prevail through Sunrise. Highest
confidence for these impactful flight restrictions is PHF and
RIC. SBY and ECG may see brief MVFR and or IFR conditions
however, confidence is low at this time. Due to the slightly
stronger winds coming onshore ORF could remain VFR through the
night. The conditions will likely improve a couple hours after
12z when the fog and mist will start to burn off. However, cloud
cover will likely persist but will cloud bases will be VFR as
the day progresses. Winds today will then increase out of the NE
by late morning and be around 5-10kt.

Outlook: Other than some potential for patchy AM fog, dry WX
and VFR conditions returns each morning through Sunday.
Remaining dry through most of the weekend, though some light
rain will be possible later Sunday and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

-  Onshore flow remains elevated today, with light winds
   expected tonight through Friday.

- A cold front brings the potential for Small Craft Advisories
  Friday night through Saturday.



Strong high pressure centered along the New England coast will
gradually drift to the SE and become anchored off the northern
md-Atlantic coast tonight and Thursday. Onshore flow, averaging
10-15 kt prevails early this morning, with seas around 3 ft
across the northern coastal waters, and ~4 ft to the south. The
buoys in the 0-20 NM offshore NC waters have been 4.3-4.6 ft since
last evening. Have not issued SCAs at this time, but if seas
get any higher, we may need one for today off the NC coast.

Otherwise, winds will slowly diminish by tonight, and especially
Thursday through Friday as the sfc high continues to weaken and
become centered into the region. Low pressure lifts NE off the
coast of Florida Thursday night into Friday, keeping seas at
3-4 ft for the southern ocean zones despite light winds. It will
be benign across the Bay and rivers with winds 5-10 kt or less
Thursday and Friday. However, by late Friday night into Saturday
morning, the next cold front is forecast to drop south through
the local waters. The airmass is not particularly cold, but
pressure rises are on the order 4-5 mb/6 hr as strong (>1030 mb)
sfc high pressure builds SE from the Great Lakes. Probs for 18
kt sustained winds are not very high yet, but this does not have
the addition of the high res guidance at this range. Have
increased the N-NE winds during this time, and expect SCAs may
be needed for at least the Bay and southern coastal waters late
Fri night/early Sat.



&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HET/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...LKB

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion