180
FXUS61 KAKQ 100656
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
256 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for strong to
severe storms across the northern half of the area today and
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An unsettled pattern develops later today into the weekend, with
daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

2) Drier next week as an upper ridge builds into the region with
above normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An unsettled pattern develops later today into the
weekend, with daily chances for showers or thunderstorms.

Surface high pressure is now well offshore in the Atlantic with an
upper trough and surface low across Quebec. The associated cold
front extends from the low southwestward into the Ohio Valley. An
upper ridge is noted across the central and eastern Gulf Coast,
extending northeast into the local area.

The northern upper trough and associated surface low will slowly
shift east-southeast today, gradually suppressing the ridge. The
cold front approaches from the northwest this evening, slowing as
the boundary aligns parallel to the mid-and upper-level quasi-zonal
flow. Compressional heating ahead of the front will yield highs
reaching the low-to-mid 90s inland from the immediate coast. Latest
guidance has maintained the potential for isolated to widely
scattered convection entering western areas late this afternoon,
spreading across the Virginia Northern Neck and Maryland Lower
Eastern Shore tonight into early Friday. While most of the stronger
mid level flow will remain displaced north of the local area, 20-25
kt of deep layer shear will be in place late this afternoon into the
evening hours. Combined with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, a few
stronger thunderstorm cores are possible across the northern half of
the area with the potential for locally strong straight line winds.
SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (lvl 1/5) for strong to severe
storms this afternoon and tonight, primarily for the northern half
of the CWA.

00z models continue to slow the progression of the front across the
region Friday. The 00z HREF shows a signal for locally heavy
rainfall in areas that remain along and south of the stalled front,
primarily NE portions of NC and along the VA/NC border counties
farther west. High temps will vary considerably with low 80s N and
low 90s S.

Better areawide storm chances arrive Saturday as the stalled front
lifts back north and a few weak perturbations push across the
region. Considerable cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers
and storms, including the potential for some locally heavy
downpours, will cap Saturday`s highs in the low to mid 80s for most,
with upper 80s limited to the southern third of the CWA. There
remains an area wide ERO that would suggest some potential hydro
issues in the typical spots for Saturday, given the moist, modestly
unstable airmass and relatively weak steering flow.

The front washes out late weekend into early next week. Some
additional showers and storms remain possible Sunday, though
coverage will be noticeably lower than Saturday.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier next week as an upper ridge builds into the
region with above normal temperatures.

Mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected on Monday with only a
slight chance for a shower or two across NE NC in the late afternoon
or early evening hours. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
with a few spots across the south possibly touching 90 degrees.
Continued dry Tuesday with upper 80s and low 90s in the forecast.
Chances for showers and storms tick up mid to late week with
temperatures continuing above seasonal norms as upper ridging across
the Gulf Coast builds back toward the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions largely prevail through the 06z TAF period.
Breezy SW winds ~10 kt overnight, increase to 10-15 kt today
with some gusts 15-20 kt, especially near the coast. Mostly
clear skies early this morning will become partly cloudy late
morning through the afternoon. A front will approach the region
from the NW this evening with some potential for showers and
storms at RIC and SBY. Low confidence on coverage and timing
limits mention to PROB30 groups. Brief reductions to MVFR or
locally IFR conditions is possible in any convection that
manages to impact the terminals late this afternoon into the
evening.


Outlook: Additional precip is possible late tonight, still
mainly at SBY and RIC. This will also bring the potential for
continued short-lived MVFR CIGs across mainly northern
terminals Thu night into Friday morning. The boundary slowly
drops south through Friday morning, but lingers near the VA/NC
border Friday afternoon through early Sunday, with daily chances
of showers/storms (highest chances southeastern terminals and
greatest on Saturday). MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGs will also be possible
from PHF-ORF-ECG Friday night into Saturday morning, with
additional opportunities of sub-VFR CIGs/VSBY in scattered to
numerous convective showers and embedded t-storms Saturday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated SW winds continue early this morning. Small Craft Advisories
  remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, northern coastal
  waters, and tidal rivers.

- A period of generally benign marine conditions is favored from
  this weekend into early next week.

Latest analysis depicted high pressure offshore and a cold front
well to the north, attached to a strong area of low pressure well to
the north of the Great Lakes. WAA has ramped up ahead of the front
given the pressure gradient between the low in Canada and the high
offshore. SW winds were 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across the
Ches Bay and northern coastal waters (north of the VA/NC border), 15-
20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the tidal rivers and NC coastal
waters, and 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the Currituck
Sound. As such, SCAs remain in effect across the Ches Bay, coastal
waters north of the VA/NC border, and tidal rivers this morning.
SCAs end at 8 AM across the upper rivers, 10 AM across the Lower
James, Ches Bay, and coastal waters between Cape Charles Light and
the VA/NC border, and 1 PM across the northern coastal waters.

SW winds diminish later this morning into this afternoon to 10-15 kt
with gusts up to 20 kt for most. However, CAMs continue to show
light wind across the middle Ches Bay around 5-10 kt. As the cold
front slowly moves south across the local waters tonight into early
Fri morning, SW winds may briefly increase ahead of the front to 15-
20 kt across the lower Ches Bay and southern coastal waters.
However, this surge looks to be brief with low confidence in SCA
conditions across the lower Ches Bay and Currituck Sound. As such,
will hold off on any additional SCAs (or extensions) at this time.
Winds become NE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt behind the cold
front Fri. While some CAMs show 15-20 kt winds behind the front, the
CAA is weak with most guidance showing winds remaining below SCA.
Nevertheless, will continue to monitor the potential for low-end
SCAs behind the front. The flow becomes onshore Fri night into Sat
with 10-15 kt winds possible Sat. Otherwise, a period of generally
benign marine conditions is favored from this weekend into early
next week.

Waves and seas of 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively (3-4 ft seas across
the NC coastal waters) subside to 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively by
this afternoon. Waves and seas then likely remain 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft
respectively from late tonight into early next week. Otherwise, the
rip current risk remains low today and tomorrow. However, 9-10
second periods across the southern beaches today may allow for a
locally higher risk for a few rip currents. That being said, wind
directions are unfavorable, so will keep a low rip current risk for
now and reevaluate later in the morning depending on what lifeguard
reports indicate. Additionally, with onshore flow Sat, a moderate
rip current risk exists across the northern beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-639-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RMM

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion