982
FXUS61 KAKQ 191045
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
645 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No Significant changes has been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures return to near seasonal averages during the day
today with a steady moderating trend in temperatures Friday
into next weekend. Dry conditions continue late this week into
next weekend outside of a minimal chance of showers Friday
night.

2) A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region early next week
bringing a chance of showers and a return to cooler
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures return to near seasonal averages
during the day today with a steady moderating trend in
temperatures Friday into next weekend. Dry conditions continue
late this week into next weekend outside of a minimal chance of
showers Friday night.

An upper level trough is moving across the region early this
morning bringing some mid and high level clouds. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure is centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Temperatures are mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

00z/19 ensemble guidance continues to depict a strong upper
level ridge presently over the western CONUS translating to the
central CONUS late this week into the weekend. This will allow
for a steady warming trend beginning today and continuing
through Sunday. Temperatures return to near average today with
highs in the upper 50s inland and lower to mid 50s near the
coast. High temperatures will primarily be in the mid 60s to
near 70F inland Friday, and then upper 60s to mid 70s Saturday,
and cooler at the coast both days. Sunday is likely the warmest
day as the upper ridge gets flattened with its axis extending
from the southern Plains to the southern Mid- Atlantic. High
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 70s to around 80F
inland and will likely be this warm even into southside Hampton
Roads where temperatures were nudged above NBM guidance. Not
quite as warm across the Eastern Shore.

There is no strong signal for organized rainfall later this
week into next weekend aside from a weak upper system that
brings a chance of showers Friday night. QPF is only a few
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
continue.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front crosses the Mid-Atlantic region
early next week bringing a chance of showers and a return to
cooler temperatures.

00z/19 EPS/GEFS depict weakening of the upper ridge early next
week as a trough digs from the Great Lakes to the Northeast.
This will allow a cold front to drop across the region Monday
along with a chance of showers. However, 00z deterministic and
ensemble numerical guidance has very limited QPF. Mild Monday
with a brief period of below average temperatures expected to
return behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Surface high pressure is centered over the region as of 12z.
VFR with some BKN-OVC mid and high clouds as an upper trough
slides across the area. The wind is calm to very light out of
the E/SE. VFR conditions prevail today into tonight. Clouds
clear out later this morning with primarily clear conditions by
this aftn into tonight. The wind today will mainly be E/SE 5-8kt
along the coast, and SSW 5-8kt inland, and then calm to very
light out of the E/SE tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Friday through Monday. The wind
will mainly be light aside from a 10-15kt SW wind Friday, and
then potentially a breezy NNW wind behind the cold front Monday.
There is a 20-40% chc of showers Friday night as an upper level
system slides across the area, the another 20-40% chc of
showers with a cold front Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA today and Friday, then potential for low-end SCAs
  Friday night.

- The next good chance of solid SCAs is Sunday night-Monday
  following a cold frontal passage.

High pressure is positioned well to the NE of the local area
and is ridging down the coast into the Mid-Atlantic. Winds are
onshore and on the lighter side at 5-10kt. Seas are around 3ft
and waves in the bay are 1ft or less. These benign conditions
will continue through the day today into tomorrow morning. Flow
turns toward the S/SE by Friday morning. Winds stay on the
lighter side for the first part of Friday, then picks up in the
evening to 15-20kt in the evening as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of a front dropping into the area. SCAs may be
needed for Friday night into Sat morning, but look to be on the
lower end of criteria. Highest confidence is in the northern
coastal waters where local wind probs have a 75%+ prob for 25kt+
gusts and wave guidance suggests seas around 5ft. Lighter winds
return Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Looking to early next
week, another round of SCAs is likely early Monday into Tuesday
with northerly flow behind a cold front. Details will of course
come into focus over the weekend, but for now thinking winds
will peak Monday night with gusts around 30kt.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion