774
FXUS61 KAKQ 240921
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
521 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated 12z TAF discussion and Key Messages.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures briefly cool down today, then start to moderate
back to above average temperatures for mid to late week.

2) The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week and
into the first half of the weekend. Another cold front looks to
bring another rather abrupt temperature change to begin next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures briefly cool down today, then
start to moderate back to above average temperatures for mid to
late week.

The cold front that crossed the area last evening is now well
south of the area. Meanwhile, 1032mb sfc high pressure just NW
of the local area builds across the area through this evening.
WInds remain gusty early this morning, then gradually relax from
late morning into the afternoon, as the high builds into the
region. Thickness tools and model guidance are generally well
aligned on much cooler temperatures today. Forecast highs today
only in the lower to mid 50s (upper 40s to near 50F along the
Eastern Shore and immediate coast).

Clear sky, light winds, and a dry airmass will make for quick
cooling early this evening. However, temperatures will likely
not fall as low as they otherwise would, due to increasing mid
to high clouds, associated with a weak shortwave crossing the
area late tonight into Wed morning. Regardless, another chilly
night tonight, with lows in the low to mid 30s. The high is
relatively transient, and is expected to slide offshore into the
western Atlantic Wednesday, allowing milder return flow to develop
for the latter half of the week. Temperatures respond by steadily
moderating Wed-Fri ahead of the next weather system. Temperatures
return back to near normal tomorrow, then jump back above normal
through the end of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 2...The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of
the week and into the first half of the weekend. Another cold
front looks to bring another rather abrupt temperature change to
begin next weekend.

The next chance for rain comes Friday/Friday night, as the
previously referenced next weather system and its associated
cold front crosses the area. Forcing still looks rather weak,
and with zonal flow aloft, QPF with the next system still not
looking very impressive. In fact, there remains little to no
ensemble support for rainfall amounts greater than a half inch
Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be warm on Friday,
but will quickly drop back down below normal post- frontal
Friday night and Saturday on gusty NNE winds. Look for highs in
the 70s to low 80s Friday, falling into the 30s and 40s Friday
night, with highs only in the 50s Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 520 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds continue to gradually diminish across area terminals, as
1032+mb high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic from the NW.
Winds remain gusty through mid to late morning along the coast.
Some high clouds over the piedmont to RIC AOA 15 kft AGL. Lower
clouds, potentially with bases ~4 kft AGL, will linger just
inland of the Chesapeake Bay around through around sunrise
impacting mainly PHF/ORF. VFR conditions with less wind today,
especially this afternoon, with winds becoming light and
variable after 18z this afternoon and through this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday night.
Unsettled conditions return at the end of the week into the
weekend, with flight restrictions possible with the next cold
frontal passage Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are ongoing in the wake of last night`s cold frontal
  passage. Elevated winds and seas/waves gradually subside later
  today.

- High pressure brings more benign marine conditions tonight through
  Thursday before a cold front results in another round of
  increased winds and waves/seas to end the week.

Current early morning observations highlight the the N/NNE wind
shift that came in behind the cold frontal passage during the late
evening hours of Monday. Wind speeds have decreased some across the
middle Bay and northern coastal waters, though gusts to 20-25kt will
persist for the next couple of hours. Across the southern Bay, mouth
of the Bay, and southern Coastal Waters, gusts to 30-35kt remain as
of this writing. This is down from the 40kt gusts we were seeing an
hour or two ago. Expect this downward trend to continue into the
morning hours as high pressure builds into the region. Seas and
waves also came up with this frontal passage, with coastal water
buoys reading around 5-7ft seas and 2-4ft waves in the Bay. As winds
gradually subside by this afternoon, so will the choppy waters.
Thus, SCAs remain for all waters through the morning hours. The
rivers, northern Bay, and Currituck Sound will see their SCAs expire
by sunrise. The Southern and Mouth of the Bay will keep their SCA
until 10am due to lingering wind gusts and elevated seas. Then the
coastal waters will drop off gradually from north to south as wave
heights decrease to 2-3ft by this evening. Some 4ft seas will remain
along the NC coast.

Much more benign marine conditions will develop tonight and persist
through Thursday night. Seas will be 2-3ft with waves in the Bay of
2ft. Southerly winds will begin to increase through the day on
Thursday bringing some light breezes back to the waters. A cold
front will approach the area Thursday night into Friday creating
another round of elevated winds and seas/waves with the initial
frontal push. SCAs for gusty winds may be needed for the Bay and
rivers during this timeframe. Expect rain chances across the waters
with the cold front as well. A secondary surge may result in
stronger winds arriving Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630-
     631-633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-
     634-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ654-
     656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...JKP

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion